COVID – 19 What Data is Telling Us

A sudden outbreak of Coronavirus SAR CoV -2 in Wuhan City of China has become a pandemic that the whole world is unraveling. This novel virus has put our knowledge base, systems, and infrastructure to stress test and we are beginning to realize that many countries are not as prepared as we think they are to disruption.  However, countries have shown different levels of agility, responsiveness, and organization in dealing with COVID-19.

The international media and social media also played a big role in framing the narrative so much that COVID is seen as a death sentence and a public health challenge that will decimate African countries. This information has been internalized by many and influenced our policy decisions and national response to the extent that we adopted any solution to stopping the spread.

What is data actually telling us?

Data gathered from the World Health Organization, country-specific sites, and other aggregators as at the time of writing, show an average death rate (Death-to-Case) of 3.88% with Nigeria presently around 2.96%. So statistically, Nigeria is not doing badly, although some may argue that we are under-reporting. The recovery rate in Nigeria currently stands at 18.8% with a global average of 38.6%.

It is, however, discouraging to see that we have conducted the least number of test per million people of all major countries on the face of the earth. The test per million indicator speaks of a nation’s capacity to effectively test for COVID and identify suspected cases, while the Death-to-Case ratio and Recovery ratio speak to a nation’s ability to manage confirmed cases.

We are currently testing at a rate of 49 per million people, whereas our West African neighbour, Ghana is testing at a rate of 3,238 per million people with a Death-to-Case ratio of about 0.71%

South Africa is another African country with a good performance, testing at 2,715 per million people with a 1.97% death rate.

Ghana, South Africa, and other smaller  African countries have shown some organization, preparedness, and sound medical management skills with a near-zero death rate.

There are about 19 countries with a death rate of more than 10% and only 2 African countries are among these outliers.

165 countries have a death rate of less than 6% with the USA having 5.65%, China with 5.59%, and Canada with 5.44%. More than 138 countries have less than 4%

Based on data, it appears that the media has framed their narrative around outliers, death rate figures, and extreme approaches such as a lockdown. Though such an initial reaction is not unexpected to make everyone afraid enough to protect themselves and their people. However, with the volume of data now, it is becoming evident that the curve is really not unusual.

So with approximately 3 million reported cases globally,  3.8% average death rate, and 38.4% recovery rate, it is evident that the narrative has to change to COVID management like every other disease.

40 out of 100 will recover without medications, simply based on the improved immune response

4 out of 100 will likely be in critical condition or die and about 56% will require active management.

This only means that the Nigerian government will have to improve on its testing capacity and its ability to screen for the underlying condition that can degenerate into critical condition. Attention should also be given to people with pre-existing conditions.

Medical infrastructure has to be improved to be able to manage confirmed cases effectively. COVID which is also regarded as SARS – COV 2 would likely be seasonal and recurrent. So medical capacity and management are key.

Furthermore, a change in narrative starting with scrapping the word ISOLATION CENTRE is necessary. We should rather call it Infectious Disease Control and Management Ward and should be situated in all Teaching Hospitals and Federal Medical Centres. Nobody wants to go into isolation. It carries negative vibes.

The narrative change should also focus on the immune system and immune boosters. Social distancing, frequent washing of hands, sanitizing, and wearing nose masks with the use of ventilators for those with breathing difficulties are all external ways of protecting people. We need to get something on the inside that will also fight the virus. While vaccines are still in the works, the natural defense mechanism God gave all humans is the immune system. The messaging should, therefore, reflect it.

Lastly, the private medical sector should be a part of the management mix. The reality is that most people that are likely going to be Probable Cases will first check into their private hospitals. Private testing centers and rapid test kits are key to catching and managing COVID – 19

So the government needs to go back to the drawing board and reflect on their responses so far, draw some lessons learned, and rework their approach towards COVID management. We need an all-inclusive and decentralized approach.